Question 1

How is the strategy return calculated?

Accepted Answer

Each morning the model publishes a bias score from -100 to +100. When the score signals Risk-On (above +20) the strategy goes long SPY. When it signals Risk-Off (below -20) it goes short SPY. In the Neutral zone the strategy sits in cash. A 5 basis-point friction is applied on every position change to reflect real-world trading costs.

Question 2

Is this backtested or live?

Accepted Answer

The chart replays the exact production algorithm against every trading session since January 2020. Each day's score uses only data available before that session's open — no lookahead bias. The same model runs live every trading day.

Question 3

Can I verify these results?

Accepted Answer

Yes. Pull SPY daily closes from Yahoo Finance or any public source. The strategy is simple: long SPY when the score exceeds +20, short when below -20, cash otherwise. A 5 bps friction is applied per trade. You can replicate the equity curve independently.

Model vs S&P 500