Updated Tuesday, June 2, 2026
Market Regime Today
Is the market risk on or risk off today? The quantitative score below is calculated before the US open from 9 cross-asset ETFs matched against 10 years of historically similar sessions.
Stocks Regime Score
+13
Neutral
Mixed signals. No clean macro confirmation from the cross-asset rotation basket. Reduce sizing.
Last updated 8:44 AM EDT
Today's Read
The email is the fast version. This is the fuller daily context.
REGIME STATUS
Override active: headline-driven session, so the score is background context for now.
TRADING IMPLICATION
**Setup:** Headline-driven session, so the index read is unstable.
**Focus:** Low conviction. Focus on stock-specific setups, not index chasing.
**Risk:** Treating a reactive tape like a clean trend day.
WHY IT MATTERS
Iran escalation is moving the tape more than the normal setup this morning. If the market keeps repricing every new headline, the pattern is still broken.
BASE SCORE
Base model score: NEUTRAL (+13), but it is de-emphasized until the market stops trading on fresh headlines.
Full Session Playbook
Base case is chop unless the market starts to trend.
Favored: relative-value setups, idiosyncratic names, event-driven trades
Careful with: index momentum chasing, late breakout trades, big directional bets without confirmation
If this read is right, individual names should matter more than the index.
What Could Break This Read
Fresh news can make the historical matches much less useful before the market has time to settle.
The counter case is that this stops being a chop day and turns into a real trend, which would make a neutral read too cautious.
The model earns trust back only when the market stops reacting to each new headline.
Under The Hood
Closest match is 2025-07-24, which was a quieter session than this one. On a normal day this setup would usually stay contained, but today's news makes that comparison more of a baseline than a guide. Model Diagnostics: Closest Match 2025-07-24 | Intraday Net +0.32% | Session Range +0.43% | Match Confidence 91% | Override ACTIVE.
Based on 2,513 aligned sessions and 5 close historical matches.
Headline read
- Trump says Iran has agreed to not have a nuclear weapon - Reuters
- Norwegian teen, hired by Swedish crime group used by Iran, planned UK murder, London court told - Reuters
- Israel intercepts 'hostile aircraft' that crossed from Lebanon, military says - Reuters
Crypto Regime Score
-74
Extreme Risk-Off
Broad risk-asset liquidation. Bonds, gold, and defensive sectors dominating flows.
Last updated 8:37 AM EDT
How the regime score works
The macro regime score ranges from −100 (extreme risk-off) to +100 (extreme risk-on). It measures today's cross-asset conditions against the most similar historical trading sessions from the past 10+ years.
A K-Nearest Neighbors model builds a 6-dimensional feature vector from SPY momentum (RSI-14), VIX implied volatility, HYG/TLT credit spreads, copper/gold industrial-vs-safe-haven ratio, USO energy momentum, and a dealer positioning proxy. It finds the 5 closest historical analogs, averages their forward returns, and maps the result to the −100 to +100 scale.
For crypto, a parallel model uses BTC realized volatility, ETH/BTC ratio, DXY dollar momentum, funding rates, and TLT rate-expectation momentum.
Both scores are published every trading day before the US equity open. The daily email gives the fast morning read, while this page carries the fuller trust check, model context, and session map.
Get the full briefing every morning
The score above is the headline. The daily email gives you the fast morning read before the bell, and the site carries the fuller context behind it.
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What each regime means
Backtested since 2020: +295% strategy vs +116% S&P 500 · +41,576% long-only vs +941% BTC