Macro Bias

Updated Wednesday, April 15, 2026

Market Regime Today

Is the market risk on or risk off today? The quantitative score below is calculated before the US open from 9 cross-asset ETFs matched against 10 years of historically similar sessions.

Stocks Regime Score

-16

Neutral

Mixed signals. No clean macro confirmation from the cross-asset rotation basket. Reduce sizing.

−1000+100

Last updated 8:52 AM EDT

Live dashboard →Track record →Briefing archive →

Crypto Regime Score

-26

Risk-Off

Defensive leadership taking over. Traders are rotating away from cyclicals into safety.

−1000+100

Last updated 9:41 AM EDT

Crypto dashboard →Crypto track record →

How the regime score works

The macro regime score ranges from −100 (extreme risk-off) to +100 (extreme risk-on). It measures today's cross-asset conditions against the most similar historical trading sessions from the past 10+ years.

A K-Nearest Neighbors model builds a 6-dimensional feature vector from SPY momentum (RSI-14), VIX implied volatility, HYG/TLT credit spreads, copper/gold industrial-vs-safe-haven ratio, USO energy momentum, and a dealer positioning proxy. It finds the 5 closest historical analogs, averages their forward returns, and maps the result to the −100 to +100 scale.

For crypto, a parallel model uses BTC realized volatility, ETH/BTC ratio, DXY dollar momentum, funding rates, and TLT rate-expectation momentum.

Both scores are published every trading day before the US equity open. The daily briefing email expands the score into a full sector breakdown, historical pattern analysis, and risk check.

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What each regime means

+60 to +100Extreme Risk-OnBroad structural bids. Lean into momentum and relative strength leaders.
+21 to +59Risk-OnGrowth-favoring conditions. Buy pullbacks in leading sectors.
−20 to +20NeutralMixed tape. Reduce position sizing. Wait for confirmation before committing.
−59 to −21Risk-OffDefensive rotation underway. Favor bonds, utilities, and cash.
−100 to −60Extreme Risk-OffBroad liquidation. Capital preservation mode. Avoid new longs.

Backtested since 2020: +295% strategy vs +116% S&P 500 · +41,576% long-only vs +941% BTC