Those numbers are real. Since January 2020, the Macro Bias crypto regime model has returned +41,576% on a long-only strategy vs +941% for BTC buy-and-hold. Same asset. Same time period. No leverage, no shorting. Just knowing which days to be in and which days to sit out.
That is a 44x difference in performance. And the explanation is simpler than you think.
What the Strategy Actually Does
The model does not pick entries. It does not draw support and resistance lines. It does not watch the order book or read Twitter.
Every day, it measures four things: BTC realized volatility, the ETH/BTC ratio, dollar index correlation, and cross-asset momentum. It compresses those into a single score and classifies the market into one of five regimes: Extreme Risk-Off, Risk-Off, Neutral, Risk-On, or Extreme Risk-On.
On Risk-On and Extreme Risk-On days, you are in. On everything else, you are out. That is the entire strategy.
Where the Edge Comes From
Most people assume the outperformance comes from catching the big moves up. It does not. BTC buy-and-hold captured every single rally. The regime strategy missed some of them.
The edge comes almost entirely from the drawdowns. BTC dropped 53% in May 2021. The regime model was out. BTC ground down 77% from the November 2021 high to the June 2022 low. The regime model was out for most of it. BTC flash-crashed 30% in August 2024 during the yen carry unwind. The regime model was out.
When you avoid those drops, your compounding base stays intact. Buy-and-hold recovers from a 50% drawdown when the asset doubles. But if you avoided the drawdown entirely, you did not need the recovery. You were already ahead.
Why This Matters More Than Entry Timing
Retail crypto traders spend an enormous amount of energy on entries. Where to buy, what level to wait for, which pattern confirms the move. But the data shows that market conditions matter more than entry quality.
A mediocre entry on a strong Risk-On day has a higher probability of profit than a perfect entry on a Risk-Off day. That is not intuition. That is what 2,297 days of backtested data show.
The regime model does not give you better entries. It tells you whether today is the kind of day where entries tend to work at all.
What About the Long/Short Strategy?
The model also supports a long/short variant that returned +352,206% over the same period. That number looks absurd, and it comes with significantly more risk and complexity. The long-only variant at +41,576% is the more realistic benchmark for most traders because it only requires one decision: in or out.
Both strategies use the same regime signal. The difference is that long/short takes the other side during Risk-Off periods, capturing value from the declines instead of just avoiding them.
The Honest Caveats
Past performance does not guarantee future results. The backtest uses daily close prices without slippage or fees. Real trading will differ from the theoretical returns. The model can and will have losing periods. No strategy works every day.
What the backtest does prove is that systematically reading market conditions and adjusting exposure produces dramatically different outcomes than passive holding. That is not a controversial claim. It is what the numbers show across 2,297 trading days.
See It for Yourself
The full track record is published at macro-bias.com/crypto/track-record. Every daily score, every regime call, every trade the backtest took. Nothing is hidden.
The free daily crypto briefing delivers the current regime read to your inbox every morning. You do not need to take our word for the numbers. Watch the model work in real time and decide for yourself.